WOW-Something’s happening in Brentwood !
“You can’t sell in Brentwood”
“The market there is dead!”
but…
look at what’s happened:
I track active and pending properties in many areas. By plotting a ratio I can see market shifts as they happen.
Brentwood’s recent move has been astounding!
The second chart is the Active/Pending ratio.
This as gone from a severe buyer’s market to what appears to be a Seller’s market!
But wait…
There’s more to this story.
Many homes in Brentwood have been foreclosed or otherwise been removed from the pool of available properties.
Many will return as sellers regain hope of selling.
Even if much of this is a short-term illusion, the change has been dramatic.
It’s possible that buyers are starting to sense a bottom, or at least an opportunity.
What do you think?
If you live in CA then you have a long way to go before hitting bottom. The end is not close, as much as we would all like to hope. The Alt-A mortgage crisis is set to hit at the end of the summer/early fall as the mass of exotic 3 and 5 year mortgages start adjusting HARD. This will roll through until 2010.
More info on this is available if you run a seach for “Alt-A Crisis” on youtube.
Brian
June 13, 2008
Hi Brian,
I mostly agree with your timeline. I have talked about the pipeline of resets and the hidden REOs in my classes. There is however a significant shift in the market dynamics in some areas. I have 2 Clients I’m working with in Antioch. We are up against multiple offers over asking price on everything we decide is a good deal. The REOs are finally priced right (they still don’t look good or smell good).
I put in an offer for a Client in El Cerrito but we were out-bid by 3 other offers(all of which will eventually realize they over-paid).
I do know that there are some great deals for Investors who know values and are patient. My over all investment strategy now is maximum debt,fixed loans, and long-term plans.
I am buying now in some markets for the huge payoff in 10 years.
Eric Haggin
June 14, 2008